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ICBC Plans No Fund Raising; Loans Jump to Record in 2009

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., the world’s largest lender by market value, said it has no fund-raising plan at the moment even as it boosted lending by 24 percent to a record last year.

ICBC’s capital adequacy ratio is “sound” and the highest among rivals, and pressure on capital raising is “not big,” President Yang Kaisheng said at a press conference in Beijing yesterday.

China’s banks doled out a combined 9.59 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) in new loans last year, helping the government engineer a turnaround in the world’s third- largest economy. The credit binge drained lenders’ capital and sparked concerns about asset bubbles, a higher number of bad loans and increased inflation pressure.

China’s publicly-traded banks have already raised about 131 billion yuan from bond and share sales since the second half of last year to replenish capital drained by loan growth, and they have announced plans to raise a further 127 billion yuan, according to Bloomberg data.

Beijing-based ICBC’s capital adequacy ratio, a measure of the bank’s financial strength, fell to 12.60 percent at the end of third quarter, from 13.06 percent at the end of 2008.

The nation’s policy makers aim to avert asset bubbles and restrain inflation by limiting new credit at 7.5 trillion yuan this year. China’s growth accelerated to 10.7 percent in the fourth quarter, the fastest pace since 2007, and property prices climbed the most in 21 months.

Boost Financing

ICBC said it will boost financing to projects already under construction and to small-and-medium sized firms and cut loans to new projects that are not government-backed and if they’re energy-intensive or polluting. Loans would also be reduced to sectors with overcapacity, Yang said.

Loans by the bank this year will be less than in 2009, Yang said. ICBC’s new loans were 1.03 trillion yuan last year, Yang said. That’s a record, according to calculations based on Bloomberg data.

After a government bailout five years ago, ICBC is now the world’s biggest bank by value. The lender has more than doubled profit during the past three years and has more than 16,000 outlets nationwide and 112 branches outside China, and 190 million personal customers — equivalent to the populations of Russia and Canada combined.

ICBC on March 4 submitted a tender offer to buy all shares in Thailand’s ACL Bank Pcl in a deal that would give ICBC a foothold in the southeastern Asian nation after acquisitions in Indonesia, Macau, South Africa and Canada since 2007. The bank aims to triple the share of profit coming from abroad to 10 percent.

ICBC will be “active and prudent” with overseas expansion this year, Yang said.

Protected: 19 Trading Points

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Sun Tzu – The Art of War

The Oldest Military Treatise in the World!

The Principles of Warfare:

Calculations!
Sun-tzu said:

Warfare is a great matter to a nation; it is the ground of death and of life; it is the way of survival and of destruction, and must be examined.

Therefore, go through it by means of five factors; compare them by means of calculation, and determine their statuses:

One, Way, two, Heaven, three, Ground, four, General, five, Law.

The Way is what causes the people to have the same thinking as their superiors; they may be given death, or they may be given life, but there is no fear of danger and betrayal.

Heaven is dark and light, cold and hot, and the seasonal constraints.

Ground is high and low, far and near, obstructed and easy, wide and narrow, and dangerous and safe.

General is wisdom, credibility, benevolence, courage, and discipline.

Law is organization, the chain of command, logistics, and the control of expenses.

All these five no general has not heard;
one who knows them is victorious,
one who does not know them is not victorious.

Therefore, compare them by means of calculation, and determine their statuses.

Ask:

Which ruler has the Way.

Which general has the ability.

Which has gained Heaven and Ground.

Which carried out Law and commands.

Which army is strong.

Which officers and soldiers are trained.

Which reward and punish clearly, by means of these, I know victory and defeat!

A general who listens to my calculations, and uses them, will surely be victorious, keep him.

A general who does not listen to my calculations, and does not use them, will surely be defeated, remove him.

Calculate advantages by means of what was heard, then create force in order to assist outside missions.

Force is the control of the balance of power, in accordance with advantages.

Warfare Is the Way of Deception:

Therefore, if able, appear unable, if active, appear not active, if near, appear far, if far, appear near.

If they have advantage, entice them;
if they are confused, take them,
if they are substantial, prepare for them,
if they are strong, avoid them,
if they are angry, disturb them,
if they are humble, make them haughty,
if they are relaxed, toil them,
if they are united, separate them.

Attack where they are not prepared, go out to where they do not expect.

This specialized warfare leads to victory, and may not be transmitted beforehand.

Before doing battle, in the temple one calculates and will win, because many calculations were made.

Before doing battle, in the temple one calculates and will not win, because few calculations were made.

Many calculations, victory, few calculations, no victory, then how much less so when no calculations?

By means of these, I can observe them, beholding victory or defeat!

*** If you think that war has casualties then …

What do you think about day trading in stocks?

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U.S. Said to Tell Hedge Funds to Save Euro Trading Records

The U.S. is asking hedge funds not to destroy trading records on euro bets, according to a person with knowledge of the requests, as Europe and the U.S. step up scrutiny of the funds’ role in the Greek debt crisis.

The Department of Justice sent requests to save the records to at least some of the hedge funds whose executives attended a dinner hosted by New York-based research and brokerage firm Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co. on Feb. 8, said the person, who declined to be identified because the information is private.

The European Commission said yesterday it will investigate trades in sovereign credit-default swaps in the wake of the Greek crisis, which has pushed the euro lower and prompted officials to warn hedge funds they shouldn’t try to profit from the woes of the region’s nations. One of 23 themes discussed at the Feb. 8 dinner was a wager that the euro would fall against the dollar, according to an agenda obtained by Bloomberg News.

“It is clear in the current environment, and likely for a long time going forward, any entity that profits from another’s misfortune, in this case hedge funds versus Greece and the euro zone, risks being the target of public backlash, or worse, government retaliation,” said Kirby Daley, a senior strategist in Hong Kong with Newedge Group’s prime brokerage business.

Aaron Cowen, an executive at SAC Capital Advisors LP, David Einhorn, head of Greenlight Capital LLC, and Don Morgan, who runs Brigade Capital Management LLC, attended the dinner, as did a representative from Soros Fund Management LLC, the Wall Street Journal said Feb. 25.

Greece’s Woes

Spokespeople for the hedge funds declined to comment or didn’t return calls seeking a comment. Neil Crespi, president of Monness Crespi, couldn’t be reached for comment. Gina Talamona, a Department of Justice spokeswoman, declined to comment. The requests were reported earlier yesterday by CNBC.

The premium investors demand to buy Greek government debt over comparable German bonds, the European benchmark, rose to 396 basis points on Jan. 28, the highest level since the start of the euro in 1999, making it more expensive for the country to sell new bonds. Sovereign credit-default swaps, used to insure against default, rose to a record last month.

European official have said the contracts can fuel speculation that may distort market perceptions. The German Finance Ministry said this week the over-the-counter products must be reviewed following the reaction of financial markets to the Greek debt crisis. French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde has said she wanted politicians to take a united approach against “speculators” betting on government bond defaults.

Record Bets

U.S. politicians plan to hold a hearing on the role that investment banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. may have played in Greece’s debt crisis. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said on Feb. 25 that the U.S. central bank is reviewing derivatives contracts arranged between Goldman Sachs other investment banks with Greece.

The woes of Greece, which has to finance the euro region’s largest budget shortfall, and concern they may spread to other countries have dragged down the euro, which has tumbled 11 percent since Nov. 25. It traded at $1.3613 at 8:09 a.m. in Tokyo.

Futures traders last week placed the biggest bets on record that the euro will fall against the dollar. The number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators for a decline in the 16-nation currency rose on Feb. 23 to 71,623 contracts more than those anticipating a gain, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. It was the fourth consecutive week that the amount climbed to a record.

Even if the Department of Justice decides to request the records it has asked the hedge funds to save, that doesn’t necessarily mean that the managers will be investigated, said Jedd Wider, a partner at law firm Morgan, Lewis & Bockius LLP.

Bullish on Canada

Other ideas discussed at the dinner, which took place at the Townhouse, a private facility run by restaurant Park Avenue Winter, were bullish bets on the Canadian dollar and Philip Morris International and bearish wagers on Wells Fargo & Co. and Bank of America Corp.

“The big issue is whether the meeting was informational, and these various traders were simply responding in a parallel way to a common set of facts,” which would be legal, said Herbert Hovenkamp, who teaches antitrust law at the University of Iowa College of Law in Iowa City. “What’s not legal is for people to agree to trade at a particular price or against the euro to devalue it and start a stampede that devalues it further.”

Rejecting Speculation

Louis Bacon’s $14.6 billion Moore Capital Management LP and Brevan Howard Asset Management LLP, Europe’s largest hedge-fund firm, have rejected speculation they’re trying to benefit from Greece’s woes.

Bacon told investors in a Feb. 19 letter that he isn’t betting on a Greek default because European authorities will probably bail out the country. Moore has a net long duration position in Greek bonds, meaning it will benefit from a uniform decline in interest rates across the yield curve.

Brevan Howard said in an investor letter for the $22 billion Brevan Howard Master Fund that it hasn’t been betting against Greek debt since mid-December and has “no meaningful positions” through bonds or credit default swaps in Greece, Italy or Portugal.

Stocks and Stock Market Gaps

A “Gap” is a term used to describe the condition when a stock opens at a higher price than it closed the prior day.

The word gap refers to the space that is left in the daily chart. It is the “empty space” from yesterday’s close to today’s open.

Gaps can be either up or down and they can happen to all stocks and in all stock markets.

Gaps are measured from the prior day’s closing price to the current day’s opening price. The post market activity and pre market activity do not affect the gap.

Stocks can trade after market hours, and at pre market starting, but these are not considered “normal” market hours.

For example, stock X closes at 7.00. It trades in after market hours up to 7.50. The next day it starts trading at 7.20 and trades up to 7.60. Later in the day the stock is all the way down to 7.10.

The “Gap” as we measure it is only 20 cents (7.20 – 7.00). All those post and pre market trades do not matter. The stock traded, and people made and lost money, but the gap is not affected!

What causes gaps? Usually it is news driven. Individual stocks can gap up or down due to news such as earnings reports, earnings pre-announcements, analyst’s upgrades and downgrades, rumors, message board posts, key people in the company commenting, buying or selling the stock.

Groups of stocks or the whole market may gap-up or gap-down due to various economic reports, news on the economy, political news, or major world events. These news can cause many individual issues to gap with the market.

Many stocks can move very closely with the market and others may be in the sectors that are mostly affected by the news.

Whatever the exact reasons, gaps are the result of some kind of events happening while the market is closed. The result is the buying or selling pressure at the opening of the next day, that will make the stock open at a different price than the one it closed.

Why are “Gaps” important?

This sudden move by a stock, the sudden change in demand, is often the beginning of a major move.

There are i.e. swing trading strategies that capitalize on entering after a gap, and other tactics like i.e. momentum trading that capitalize on several days moves after a gap.

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